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Abstract:
As physicians and decision makers we constantly face difficult questions concerning screening tests for cancer. Unfortunately, we cannot determine the most effective and efficient screening program from clinical trials alone. One approach is to use a mathematical decision model that integrates and generalizes the information gained through clinical research and clinical judgment. The basic steps are to define the main components of the problem, identify the relationship between the components, and translate those relationships into quantitative terms. The model is a planning tool. It does not generate answers. It generates insights and understanding, which, when combined with existing research results and clinical experience, can help rationalize our current cancer screening policies and the design of future research.