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Incubation period of coronary heart disease
Insights
Higher serum cholesterol and blood pressure in middle-aged men correlate with increased coronary heart disease mortality over time. This suggests a long incubation period of 10 years or more for these cardiovascular risk factors.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular epidemiology
- Public health research
Background:
- The Seven Countries Study collected health data from men aged 40-59 between 1958-1964.
- Understanding the long-term impact of risk factors on mortality is crucial for public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between serum cholesterol and blood pressure measurements and national coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality.
- To estimate the potential incubation period between exposure to major CHD risk factors and their maximal impact on mortality.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the Seven Countries Study on serum cholesterol and systolic blood pressure.
- Correlated these individual measurements with national CHD mortality rates across multiple time periods (1959-1976).
Main Results:
- Found increasing positive correlations between serum cholesterol and CHD mortality over time (r = +0.86 to +0.96).
- Observed increasing positive correlations between systolic blood pressure and CHD mortality over time (r = +0.48 to +0.64).
Conclusions:
- Serum cholesterol and systolic blood pressure are strong predictors of long-term national CHD mortality.
- The findings suggest a prolonged "incubation period" of a decade or more between exposure to these risk factors and their peak effect on mortality.
Abstract:
Serum cholesterol concentrations and blood pressure were measured during 1958-64 among men aged 40-59 who took part in the Seven Countries Study. In the present study these measurements were related to the national mortality from coronary heart disease in the periods 1959-61, 1964-6, 1969-71, and 1974-6. The correlations increased with time (r = +0.86, 0.90, 0.93, and 0.96 respectively for serum cholesterol concentration and r = +0.48, 0.56, 0.57, and 0.64 for systolic blood pressure), suggesting that the "incubation period" between exposure to major coronary risk factors and the maximum effects on mortality may be 10 years or more.