[Incidence of arterial hypertension in the Quebec region]

The objectives of this study were to determine the incidence of high blood pressure (HBP) in Quebec suburbs and evaluate age, baseline blood pressure level and overweight as determinants of future hypertension. From a cohort of 4828 men, aged 35-64, screened in 1974, 1090 normotensives (blood pressure less than 160/95 mmHg without medication) free of cardiovascular disease were re-evaluated in 1979-1980. Among these 1090 men, 183 have developed a blood pressure greater than or equal to 160/95 mmHg or less than 160/95 mmHg associated with antihypertensive medication. There was no significant variation of the incidence by age (10-year strata). In the group of subjects with a baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) between 140 and 159 mmHg the incidence of systolic hypertension was 6.3 times higher than in the group with baseline SBP less than 140 mmHg. Similarly, in the group of subjects with a baseline diastolic blood pressure (DBP) between 90 and 94 mmHg the incidence of diastolic hypertension was 3 times higher than in the group with a baseline DBP less than 90 mmHg. The incidence of HBP was correlated with overweight. Furthermore overweight was a highly prevalent risk factor in the study population. In summary, the incidence of HBP is 169 per 1000 in 5 years. Baseline blood pressure and overweight are strong determinants of a future HBP and can be used to identify the high risk subgroup.