Ophthalmology manpower: shortfall or windfall?

Forecasts of ophthalmology manpower depend on assumptions about future supply and requirements. The two factors that influence supply are the number of residents trained and the attrition of ophthalmologists in practice. The factors that influence requirements are the estimated amount of future ophthalmic services the public will demand and the productivity of ophthalmologists. Previous forecasts have produced widely differing results because of an inadequate data base and varying theoretical assumptions. A conservative approach is to use past ophthalmologist to population ratios as a guide, and to tailor the output of ophthalmologists accordingly. A yearly reduction from 1982 to 1990 between 5% and 10% in the number of residency positions will be necessary to bring supply in line with requirements within the next thirty years.