[Measuring the effectiveness of different variants of tuberculosis control using simulation models]

Simulation and predictive models of tb epidemiological trends in the Czech Socialist Republic (CSR) for the 1949-2000 period were devised taking into account several variants of tb control measures. AZUMA'S simulation model from Japan was used as the basis for the mathematical processing and adapted in different parts to satisfy the conditions prevailing in the CSR. The initial conditions and parameters to go into the equations of the model were determined or estimated from statistical data for the whole of CSR or from the results of some of the more detailed partial studies. An Olivetti P 6060 minicomputer was used for calculations. Statistical data were found in satisfactory agreement with trends estimated from model simulations. The simulation models revealed that the epidemiological trends were most influenced by the treatment, less by the BCG vaccination and the least by the active case finding. As suggested by the predictive simulations, discontinuation of the programme of tb control would result in a major deterioration of the epidemiological situation.