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Abstract:
Criteria are specified for distinguishing one-decision from sequential-decision models of fertility. Sequential decisions are not demonstrated by parity-specific differences in fertility determinants. Sequential models must demonstrate the importance of unanticipated intervening events in changing fertility plans or fertility experience. They must demonstrate that the intervening events are not caused by the fertility. Two empirical tests are designed to determine which model best fits the data. One test predicts fertility plans, the other fertility events. Both tests provide some support for sequential models.