Improving the accuracy of migration age detail in multiple-area population forecasts

Population projections are often required for many geographical areas, and must be prepared with maximal computer and minimal analytical effort. At the same time, realistic age detail forecasts require a flexible means of treating age-specific net migration. This report presents a migration projection technique compatible with these constraints. A simplified version of Pittenger's model is used, where future migration patterns are automatically assigned from characteristics of historical patterns. A comparative test of age pattern accuracy for 1970-1980 indicates that this technique is superior to the commonly used plus-minus adjustment to historical rates.