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Related Experiment Videos

Biased evaluation and persistence in gambling.

T Gilovich

    Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
    |June 1, 1983
    PubMed
    Summary

    Gamblers may continue betting despite losses due to biased outcome evaluations. They tend to discount losses and bolster wins, remembering losses more vividly.

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    Area of Science:

    • Cognitive psychology
    • Behavioral economics
    • Sports betting analysis

    Background:

    • Gambling behavior often persists despite repeated financial losses.
    • Biased evaluation of gambling outcomes may explain this persistence.
    • Gamblers may accept wins readily while rationalizing or dismissing losses.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To investigate biased outcome evaluation in gambling behavior.
    • To determine if gamblers discount losses and bolster wins.
    • To examine memory recall of gambling outcomes.

    Main Methods:

    • Experiment 1: Recorded subject explanations for football bet outcomes.
    • Content analysis of explanations to identify discounting and bolstering.
    • Experiment 2 & 3: Manipulated "fluke" play salience to assess impact on expectations.

    Main Results:

    • Subjects spent more time explaining losses than wins.
    • Content analysis confirmed loss discounting and win bolstering.
    • Losses were recalled better than wins after 3 weeks.
    • Fluke play manipulation affected losing bettors' expectations more than winning bettors'.

    Conclusions:

    • Gamblers exhibit biased outcome evaluation, rationalizing losses and emphasizing wins.
    • These cognitive biases contribute to the persistence of gambling behavior.
    • Understanding these biases is crucial for interventions and responsible gambling initiatives.

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