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Recent trends in fertility in less developed countries
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|August 26, 1983
Summary
Global population growth accelerated due to declining mortality and high fertility in less developed countries. While birth rates are now falling, population increases will continue for decades due to growth momentum.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Population Studies
- Global Health
Background:
- Population growth in less developed countries surged between 1850 and 1960.
- This surge was driven by declining mortality rates coupled with sustained high fertility.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the trends in population growth rates in less developed countries.
- To examine the factors influencing recent changes in fertility and mortality.
- To project future population increases based on current demographic momentum.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of historical population data from 1850 to the present.
- Comparison of fertility and mortality rate trends across different regions.
- Modeling of population growth momentum.
Main Results:
- Population growth accelerated significantly from 1850 to 1960.
- Since the 1960s, birth rates have declined, but at varying speeds across populations.
- Demographic momentum ensures continued population increases for decades, especially where fertility remains high.
Conclusions:
- Despite falling birth rates in some areas, global population increases are set to continue.
- The pace of population growth varies significantly based on regional fertility trends.
- Understanding demographic momentum is crucial for future population planning.