Computer predictions of New Zealand doctor numbers

Considerable debate has been generated about "the coming crisis in medical manpower" with most current analyses predicting a large surplus of doctors in the late 1980s. However, predictions can be complex because of potential fluctuations in the input variables due to political and social factors. Variables affecting active doctor numbers include the numbers of medical students graduating each year, immigration, emigration, the proportions of males and females, age at retirement, and extent of part-time work. A computer simulation is described which enables the relative effects of these variables to be compared. It is found that adjustments in the medical school intake have a relatively small short-term effect compared with the effects of adjustments in several of the other variables, particularly immigration numbers.