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Related Experiment Videos

Temporal trends in breast cancer

R G Stevens, S H Moolgavkar, J A Lee

    American Journal of Epidemiology
    |May 1, 1982
    PubMed
    Summary

    Breast cancer mortality and incidence trends show similar patterns across the US, UK, Canada, and Japan. Cohort risks decreased until 1900, then increased, explaining rising rates in middle-aged women.

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    Area of Science:

    • Epidemiology
    • Oncology
    • Demography

    Background:

    • Breast cancer mortality and incidence rates exhibit complex temporal patterns.
    • International comparisons are crucial for understanding disease trends.
    • Perimenopausal age groups show notable shifts in breast cancer rates.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To analyze temporal trends in breast cancer mortality and incidence across different countries.
    • To identify cohort-specific patterns in breast cancer risks.
    • To investigate the relationship between cohort effects and age-specific rates.

    Main Methods:

    • Analysis of time-trend mortality data from the United States, England and Wales, Canada, and Japan.
    • Examination of breast cancer incidence data from Connecticut, Denmark, and Osaka, Japan.
    • Cohort analysis to identify trends over time.

    Main Results:

    • Similar temporal trends in breast cancer mortality were observed across all studied populations.
    • Cohort risks for breast cancer decreased until approximately the 1900 birth cohort, then began to increase.
    • This cohort pattern correlates with observed increases in rates among perimenopausal women (40-55 years).
    • Japanese mortality rates, though lower, mirrored Western trends.
    • Cohort incidence effects in Connecticut and Denmark showed a dip around 1900, while Osaka showed an increase from 1901 to 1936.

    Conclusions:

    • Cohort effects significantly influence breast cancer incidence and mortality trends.
    • The dip and rise in cohort risks around 1900 is a key factor in understanding contemporary breast cancer epidemiology.
    • International data reveal common underlying patterns in breast cancer trends despite variations in absolute rates.

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