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GMENAC: its manpower forecasting framework

D R McNutt

    American Journal of Public Health
    |October 1, 1981
    PubMed
    Summary

    The Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) developed forecasting models to balance physician supply and demand. These models offer valuable insights for future healthcare workforce planning.

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    Area of Science:

    • Health Policy
    • Medical Education
    • Healthcare Workforce Planning

    Background:

    • The Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) was established to advise the US Department of Health and Human Services.
    • GMENAC's charter concluded on September 30, 1980, after fulfilling its advisory role.
    • The committee addressed the critical issue of balancing future physician requirements with supply.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To describe the manpower forecasting framework and models developed by GMENAC.
    • To present the results obtained from these physician supply and demand models.
    • To highlight the potential utility of these models for national and local human resource planning.

    Main Methods:

    • Development of a comprehensive manpower forecasting framework.
    • Creation of a series of quantitative models to predict physician supply and requirements.
    • Analysis of physician needs by specialty and geographical distribution.

    Main Results:

    • GMENAC submitted 107 recommendations aimed at achieving physician workforce balance.
    • The developed models provided a structured approach to forecasting healthcare professional needs.
    • Results indicated potential imbalances in physician supply across various specialties and regions.

    Conclusions:

    • The GMENAC forecasting models offer a robust framework for understanding physician workforce dynamics.
    • These models have significant potential for informing future healthcare human resource planning.
    • The committee's work provides a foundation for evidence-based policy decisions in medical education and workforce distribution.

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