A systems view of the smoking problem: perspective and limitations of the role of science in decision-making

The complex issues and relationships surrounding the smoking problem indicate the desirability of a system dynamics computer simulation model for policy development and analysis. This paper describes an initial model-building effort, including reports of initial policy and sensitivity testing of the model. The lack of scientific research on most of the relationships and parameters required in such a model forced heavy reliance upon intuition in the model development. The sensitivity of simulated model outcomes to many of these assumptions demonstrates the need for a more concentrated multi-disciplinary research effort if forecasting and policy determination are to be carried out with confidence.