Risk markers for mortality among elderly men-a community study in Jerusalem

Risk markers for mortality among elderly men were investigated in a community survey in a neighborhood of western Jerusalem. The aim was to develop a practical method of identifying men with a high risk of mortality, for use in community health services caring for the ageing and aged. Men aged 60 yr or more who had been interviewed and examined in 1969-71 were followed up for 5 yr and the characteristic of the 75 who died were compared with those of the 312 who remained alive. The results of stepwise discriminant function analyses were translated into a simple set of criteria for the identification of men with a high risk of dying within 5 yr. The sensitivity of this mortality risk indicator hazard in this sample was 72% and its specificity was 78%. The components were age, inability to work, impaired mobility, impaired memory for recent events, electrocardiographic evidence of coronary heart disease, the presence of moderate or severe illness, diastolic hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and overweight.