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The influenza herald wave

W P Glezen, R B Couch, H R Six

    American Journal of Epidemiology
    |October 1, 1982
    PubMed
    Summary
    This summary is machine-generated.

    Community surveillance identified "herald waves" of influenza infections preceding major epidemics. These early signals, though rare, predict the next season's dominant virus, allowing for better public health preparedness.

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    Area of Science:

    • Virology and Epidemiology
    • Public Health Surveillance

    Background:

    • Influenza virus infections pose a significant public health challenge.
    • Predicting seasonal influenza epidemics is crucial for effective control measures.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To investigate the phenomenon of 'herald waves' of influenza infections.
    • To assess the utility of these early waves in predicting future epidemic strains.

    Main Methods:

    • Continuous community surveillance of respiratory illnesses in Harris County, TX (1976-1979).
    • Analysis of viral samples from 2500-3000 respiratory illnesses per season.
    • Identification of influenza virus types and subtypes within the surveillance population.

    Main Results:

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  • Identified distinct influenza 'herald waves' preceding major epidemics over three years.
  • These waves constituted a small percentage (0.4-2.0%) of total respiratory illnesses.
  • Herald waves involved cross-epidemic infections (e.g., Influenza B during an Influenza A epidemic) and antigenically similar strains.

    • Conclusions:

    • The 'herald wave' phenomenon provides valuable predictive information for upcoming influenza seasons.
    • Early detection allows for 6-9 months of preparation for control measures.
    • Consistent, continuous surveillance across diverse populations is key to identifying these predictive signals.