Preoperative estimation of risk in cardiac surgery

In order to determine the usefulness of the preoperative subjective estimation of risk and compare it with preoperative estimation of risk based upon objective data, two groups of patients subjected to open heart surgery at the Catholic University of Chile Hospital were studied prospectively. Group I comprised 227 consecutive patients operated on in 1975 and group II comprised 181 consecutive patients operated on in 1979. There were several important differences in management and techniques between the two groups, which resulted in different factors perioperative mortality. Mortality in group I was related to extreme age subsets (p less than 0.01) and to duration an anoxic arrest (p less than 0.001); mortality in group II correlated only to preoperative functional class (NYHA) (p less than 0.02). Despite these differences, subjective risk estimation as preoperatively recorded by the anesthesiologist was accurate in both groups (r = 0.969, p less than 0.05 in group I and r = 0.998, p less than 0.01 in group II). It was concluded that in the absence of a universally valid objective risk index, subjective risk estimation provides a clinical index as useful as reliance upon presently available objective data.