Survival patterns following primary prosthetic replacement for acute femoral neck fractures in the elderly

Theoretical statistical models have been used to study survival patterns following primary prosthetic replacement for acute femoral neck fractures in the elderly with special emphasis on the nature of the potential excess mortality following trauma and operation. The chances of our patients surviving given periods of time are well below those of the standard population. The excess mortality has been quantified using the proportional hazard model. The high death rate for our patients is limited to the first 4-6 postoperative months, thereafter the death rate is similar to that of the standard population. Similarly we can show that mortality following surgery is primarily dependent on the age of the patient. Survival probability and expected longevity have been calculated for different age groups. The relative longevity expected for patients below the age of 70 is very good compared with a very reduced expected longevity for patients older than 90 years. The practical consequences of our findings are discussed.