Menu item forecasting systems in hospital foodservice. A cost comparison of two- and three-echelon systems

The forecasting efficiency of two- and three-echelon menu item forecasting systems was compared. Two forecasting models were used with each system, adaptive exponential smoothing and a Box-Jenkins model. The two systems were compared in terms of forecast error costs. The two-echelon system, using adaptive exponential smoothing, was recommended. This technique resulted in the lowest forecast error costs at a majority of the lead times which probably would be used most frequently. Also, this technique was the least complicated of the four techniques which were compared.