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Related Experiment Videos

Experiments in modelling recent Danish fertility curves

J M Hoem, D Madsen, J L Nielsen

    Demography
    |May 1, 1981
    PubMed
    Summary

    This study compared fertility rate curve fitting methods. Cubic splines provided the best fit for Danish fertility data from 1962-1971, outperforming other models.

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    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Mathematical Modeling

    Background:

    • Accurate modeling of age-specific fertility rates is crucial for demographic analysis and population projections.
    • Various mathematical functions have been proposed to describe fertility patterns, but their comparative performance can vary by population and time period.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To evaluate the goodness-of-fit of multiple mathematical functions when applied to Danish age-specific fertility rates.
    • To identify the most accurate and reliable curve-fitting method for this specific demographic dataset.

    Main Methods:

    • Least squares analysis was employed to fit various functions to annual Danish fertility data (1962-1971).
    • Functions tested included cubic spline, Hadwiger, Coale-Trussell, gamma density, beta density, polynomials, Brass's relational procedures, and Gompertz curve.

    Main Results:

    • The cubic spline function demonstrated superior performance, fitting the fertility data significantly better than all other tested functions.
    • The Coale-Trussell procedure and gamma density functions showed comparable, good fits, followed by the Hadwiger function.
    • One polynomial function provided a reasonable fit, while other tested functions yielded less accurate results.

    Conclusions:

    • Cubic splines are highly effective for modeling Danish age-specific fertility rates during the study period.
    • While several functions offer good fits, the cubic spline emerges as the optimal choice for this dataset, enhancing demographic analysis accuracy.

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