Nonrandom amino acid substitution and estimation of the number of nucleotide substitutions in evolution

A method of estimating the number of nucleotide substitutions from amino acid sequence data is developed by using Dayhoff's mutation probability matrix. This method takes into account the effect of nonrandom amino acid substitutions and gives an estimate which is similar to the value obtained by Fitch's counting method, but larger than the estimate obtained under the assumption of random substitutions (Jukes and Cantor's formula). Computer simulations based on Dayhoff's mutation probability matrix have suggested that Jukes and Holmquist's method of estimating the number of nucleotide substitutions gives an overestimate when amino acid substitution is not random and the variance of the estimate is generally very large. It is also shown that when the number of nucleotide substitutions is small, this method tends to give an overestimate even when amino acid substitution is purely at random.