Probability models in the analysis of radiation-related complications: utility and limitations

In order to predict radiation-related enteric damage, 92 women were studied who had received identical radiation doses for cancer of the ovary from 1970 through 1977. A logistic model was used to predict the probability of complication as a function of number of laparotomies, hypertension, and thin physique. The utility and limitations of such probability models are presented.