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The impending pediatric 'Surplus': causes, implications, and alternatives
Insights
The US is projected to have a surplus of pediatricians and child health physicians by 1990 due to rapid supply growth outpacing child population numbers. This physician oversupply necessitates a reevaluation of training and practice roles.
Area of Science:
- Pediatrics
- Health Workforce Analysis
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- The number of pediatricians in the US is growing significantly faster than the pediatric population.
- Projections indicate a substantial increase in pediatrician numbers between 1978 and 1990.
- Existing child health physician supply estimates may be exceeded by the forthcoming number of pediatricians and family physicians.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the projected physician oversupply in pediatrics.
- To examine the implications of a growing pediatrician supply relative to child population.
- To address the need for a comprehensive assessment of child health physician workforce issues.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of pediatrician supply trends from 1978 to 1990.
- Review of Graduate Medical Educational National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) estimates on physician supply and demand.
- Consideration of factors influencing physician needs, including generalist balance, allied health professionals, and geographic distribution.
Main Results:
- Pediatrician numbers are projected to increase from 26,000 to 45,000-50,000 by 1990.
- The supply of pediatricians and family physicians is expected to exceed estimated needs.
- GMENAC estimates suggest over one in eight pediatricians may be unnecessary by 1990.
Conclusions:
- A significant surplus of pediatricians is anticipated in the US.
- Future workforce planning requires analysis of child health needs and practitioner roles.
- Decisions on training and numbers of child health practitioners must be informed by thorough needs assessments.
Abstract:
The supply of pediatricians is increasing much more rapidly than the number of children in the United States. Between 1978 and 1990, the number of pediatricians will grow from approximately 26,000 to between 45,000 and 50,000, while the number of children will remain relatively constant. Although published standards vary widely, it appears certain that the forthcoming supply of pediatricians and family physicians will greatly exceed even the most generous estimates of the need for child health physicians. The recent work of the Graduate Medical Educational National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) has focused attention on the problem of physician oversupply. That panel estimates that by 1990 more than one of every eight pediatricians will be unnecessary and has recommended that even larger surpluses be allowed to develop. Determining whether the future supply will constitute a surplus raises issues for pediatrics that include not only the numbers, but also the proper balance of generalists, the role of family physicians and nurse practitioners, and trends in geographic preferences. Facing these issues will require a thorough analysis of child health needs to provide an adequate basis for making decisions about the number and appropriate training of child health care practitioners in the future.