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Related Experiment Videos

The impending pediatric 'Surplus': causes, implications, and alternatives

P P Budetti

    Pediatrics
    |May 1, 1981
    PubMed
    Summary

    The US is projected to have a surplus of pediatricians and child health physicians by 1990 due to rapid supply growth outpacing child population numbers. This physician oversupply necessitates a reevaluation of training and practice roles.

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    Area of Science:

    • Pediatrics
    • Health Workforce Analysis
    • Public Health Policy

    Background:

    • The number of pediatricians in the US is growing significantly faster than the pediatric population.
    • Projections indicate a substantial increase in pediatrician numbers between 1978 and 1990.
    • Existing child health physician supply estimates may be exceeded by the forthcoming number of pediatricians and family physicians.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To analyze the projected physician oversupply in pediatrics.
    • To examine the implications of a growing pediatrician supply relative to child population.
    • To address the need for a comprehensive assessment of child health physician workforce issues.

    Main Methods:

    • Analysis of pediatrician supply trends from 1978 to 1990.
    • Review of Graduate Medical Educational National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) estimates on physician supply and demand.
    • Consideration of factors influencing physician needs, including generalist balance, allied health professionals, and geographic distribution.

    Main Results:

    • Pediatrician numbers are projected to increase from 26,000 to 45,000-50,000 by 1990.
    • The supply of pediatricians and family physicians is expected to exceed estimated needs.
    • GMENAC estimates suggest over one in eight pediatricians may be unnecessary by 1990.

    Conclusions:

    • A significant surplus of pediatricians is anticipated in the US.
    • Future workforce planning requires analysis of child health needs and practitioner roles.
    • Decisions on training and numbers of child health practitioners must be informed by thorough needs assessments.

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