Stochastic model of the evolution of viral hepatitis morbidity

Starting from the elementary epidemiological processes, the authors develop an evolution equation of the function generating the probability distribution of the number of viral hepatitis (VH) patients and susceptible subjects. Evolution equations for moments of order 1 and 2 - resulting from the equation of the generating function-are also discussed on the ground of certain simplifying hypotheses. The formulae are applied to the analysis of VH morbidity evolution in several children communities. The data on the evolution of the different moments and of the probability distributions are used from the specification of epidemiological transmissibility and susceptibility parameters.