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Human error in the seventies--reviewed and projected through the eighties
Aviation, Space, and Environmental Medicine
|April 1, 1981
Summary
The United States Air Force (USAF) has reduced aircraft accidents, but further improvements require new efforts. Future accident prevention must focus on human factors and technology to maintain safety progress.
Area of Science:
- Aviation Safety
- Accident Prevention
- Human Factors in Aviation
Background:
- The United States Air Force (USAF) has achieved significant reductions in accident rates over the past three decades.
- Progress towards zero accidents is becoming more challenging, with 1970s trends indicating a potential plateau or increase without renewed efforts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze historical USAF accident data and identify trends and areas for future improvement.
- To project future accident scenarios and recommend strategies for continued safety enhancement.
Main Methods:
- Review of historical USAF accident data, focusing on rates of accidents, aircraft destruction, and fatalities.
- Analysis of accident trends, including causes, phases of flight, and involvement of specific factors like crew decision-making and human-machine interaction.
Main Results:
- Accident rates have declined, but improvement is slowing. A potential increase in accidents is predicted without additional interventions.
- The proportion of fatal accidents and airborne escape failures may rise if crew perception and decision-making do not improve.
- In-flight accidents, collisions with civilian aircraft, and the involvement of women crewmembers are identified as areas of increasing concern.
- Most accidents are deemed preventable through established safety principles.
Conclusions:
- Continued reduction in USAF accident losses requires enhanced human factors (selection, training, decision-making) and improved hardware reliability and man/machine compatibility.
- Future safety strategies for the 1980s must address these areas to sustain the downward trend in accident rates.
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