Predicting first-quarter test scores from the new Medical College Admission Test

The predictive validity of the new Medical College Admission Test as it relates to end-of-quarter examinations in anatomy, histology, physiology, biochemistry, and "ages of man" is presented. It is recognized that the maximum predictive power is attenuated by the reliability of the criterion variables. To determine the value of attempting to increase the reliability in the criteria, the authors corrected the validity coefficients for attenutation. Regression analyses were also undertaken to examine the extent to which the new MCAT subtests can predict scores on end-of-quarter examinations. Results indicate that the Science Knowledge assessment areas of chemistry and physics and the Science Problems subtest were the most useful in predicting student performance, followed by the Skills Analysis: Quantitative and Skills Analysis: Reading subtests and the biology area of the Science Knowledge subtest.