Forecasting the incidence of parasitic gastroenteritis in lambs in England and Wales

An empirical method for forecasting the incidence of parasitic gastroenteritis in sheep in England and Wales is described. The level of disease in lambs in late summer depends on the date soil moisture returns to field capacity (the autumn return date) in the previous year together with rainfall from May to July in the current year. The importance of a late autumn return date and winter weather in relation to disease in stock at other times of the year is also discussed.