Perspectives on the physician workforce to the year 2020

Area of Science:

• Health Services Research
• Medical Economics
• Public Health Policy

Background:

• Assesses physician supply and demand through 2020.
• Examines utilization in health maintenance organizations (HMOs), physician distribution, and nonphysician clinician supply.
• Reevaluates previous studies projecting significant physician surpluses.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project physician demand and supply to the year 2020.
• To analyze the impact of nonphysician clinicians on future physician workforce needs.
• To inform policy regarding clinician workforce planning.

Main Methods:

• Estimated national physician demand based on 1993 data (205 per 100,000 population).
• Projected demand increase of 18% by 2020 due to service expansion and reduced physician work effort.
• Analyzed physician distribution variations across states and projected growth of nonphysician clinicians.

Main Results:

• Projected physician surplus of 31,000 in 2000, growing to 62,000 by 2010, then narrowing.
• Significant state-level variations in physician-to-population ratios, indicating existing shortages and surpluses.
• Nonphysician clinicians' numbers projected to double by 2010, equaling 60% of patient care physicians.

Conclusions:

• No major impending national physician surplus when considering all clinicians.
• Geographic distribution of physicians will be a key factor in local surpluses.
• Future physician surpluses depend on patient utilization of services offered by both physicians and nonphysician clinicians.