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Where are tomorrow's specialists?

B F Heslop1, M C Leatham

  • 1Department of Pathology, University of Otago Medical School, Dunedin.

The New Zealand Medical Journal
|October 13, 1995
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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Approximately 40% of New Zealand specialists are internationally trained, a figure projected to rise. Future specialist supply will likely rely equally on domestic and international medical graduates.

Area of Science:

  • Medical Workforce Planning
  • Specialist Training
  • Graduate Migration

Background:

  • New Zealand faces a growing need for medical specialists.
  • Understanding the origin of future specialists is crucial for workforce planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project the proportion of future medical specialists in New Zealand who will be graduates of New Zealand medical schools.
  • To identify key factors influencing the supply of specialists.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of Medical Council data (1990-1994) on specialist registration.
  • Review of historical data on New Zealand doctors qualifying (1971-1985).
  • Examination of international medical directories and specialist college trainee data.
  • Assessment of New Zealand Medical School graduating classes since 1971.

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Main Results:

  • 40% of new specialists registered between 1990-1994 were internationally trained.
  • Projections indicate an increasing reliance on international medical graduates.
  • Key factors include the emigration of New Zealand-trained specialists (38%) and a lower specialization rate among female graduates (38% vs. 56% for males).

Conclusions:

  • New Zealand medical school graduates are projected to supply approximately 50% of future specialists.
  • Addressing specialist workforce needs will require strategies considering both domestic supply and international recruitment.