Use of computer models to assess exposure to agricultural chemicals via drinking water

Surveys of drinking water quality throughout the agricultural regions of the world have revealed the tendency of certain crop protection chemicals to enter water supplies. Fortunately, the trace concentrations that have been detected are generally well below the levels thought to have any negative impact on human health or the environment. However, the public expects drinking water to be pristine and seems willing to bear the costs involved in further regulating agricultural chemical use in such a way so as to eliminate the potential for such materials to occur at any detectable level. Of all the tools available to assess exposure to agricultural chemicals via drinking water, computer models are one of the most cost-effective. Although not sufficiently predictive to be used in the absence of any field data, such computer programs can be used with some degree of certainty to perform quantitative extrapolations and thereby quantify regional exposure from field-scale monitoring information. Specific models and modeling techniques will be discussed for performing such exposure analyses. Improvements in computer technology have recently made it practical to use Monte Carlo and other probabilistic techniques as a routine tool for estimating human exposure. Such methods make it possible, at least in principle, to prepare exposure estimates with known confidence intervals and sufficient statistical validity to be used in the regulatory management of agricultural chemicals.