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The impending Canadian prostate cancer epidemic
H I Morrison1, I B MacNeill, D Miller
1Cancer Division, Bureau of Chronic Disease Epidemiology, Ottawa, ON.
Purpose:
To model and forecast prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Canada to the year 2016.
Methods:
Bivariate multiplicative models of prostate cancer incidence and mortality for Canadian men aged 45 years or older, linear in time and Weibull in age, were fitted using weighted non-linear regression.
Results:
The number of incident cases of prostate cancer is forecast to increase from 11,355, observed in 1990, to 26,900 by the year 2010 and to 35,200 by the year 2016. The number of deaths are estimated to climb from 3,424, observed in 1991, to an estimated 6,300 by the year 2010, and to 7,800 by the year 2016.
Conclusions:
The dramatic increase in prostate cancer rates with age, coupled with the expected large increase in the elderly Canadian male population and steadily increasing prostate cancer incidence rates will produce very large increases in the number of men who will have prostate cancer over the next 20 years. This has important implications for health care delivery in the future.