Inflammatory response in the early prediction of severity in human acute pancreatitis

The role of the inflammatory response in acute pancreatitis and its relation with the clinical course was examined. This study examined if the serial measurement of polymorphonuclear granulocyte (PMN) elastase/A1PI complex, phospholipase A catalytic activity, C reactive protein, and other acute phase proteins, and the protease inhibitor alpha 2-macroglobulin, provides meaningful information for prognosis. Eighty non-consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis, classified according to their clinical outcome into mild (n = 40) and severe pancreatitis (n = 40), were followed up daily. Between 48 hours, median values of PMN-elastase, C reactive protein--and most of the acute phase proteins--and phospholipase A activity, were significantly higher in the severe pancreatitis group. PMN elastase shows a dynamic course and it reaches an early peak value at days 1-2, followed by C reactive protein (days 2-4) phospholipase A (day 3), and a negative peak for alpha 2-macroglobulin (days 4-5). PMN elastase (day 1) and C reactive protein (day 2) were selected by discriminant analysis as the most useful variables studied to allow the early accurate prediction of severity (sensitivity 100%, specificity 95%). Little or no predictive additional value was found for all other variables studied. These results strongly suggest a close relation between inflammatory parameters and clinical course in acute pancreatitis, and discriminant analysis of these variables provides a useful method to classify severity.