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The increase in tuberculosis notifications in England and Wales since 1987
M J Doherty1, D P Spence, P D Davies
1Aintree Chest Centre, Fazakerley Hospital, Liverpool, UK.
Setting:
A retrospective study of tuberculosis notifications in England and Wales published by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys.
Objective:
To analyse the rise in tuberculosis notifications in England and Wales by different sub groups over the time period 1982-91.
Design:
The average annual percentage change in tuberculosis notification rates (per 100,000) for the groups were analysed by age, sex, standard region and disease site.
Results:
The average annual increase in tuberculosis notifications from 1987-91 in females was +2.55 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.5-4.7); males showed no significant change (-0.6%, 95% CI: -2.9 to +2.7). The increase was greater in younger subjects: 3.2% in females aged 25-44 (95% CI 0.9-5.5) and 4.3% in males aged 15-24 (95% CI 1.7-6.9). Only three standard regions showed an increase: the South East, the West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside. This increase was significant only in females from the South East, and was predominantly in non-respiratory tuberculosis.
Conclusion:
The rise in tuberculosis notification rates from 1987-91 has been predominantly in females, in those under 65, has occurred in 3 regions, and predominantly in non-respiratory tuberculosis. The analysis highlights some of the inadequacies of the present notification system for tuberculosis.