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Related Experiment Videos

Head and neck surgery workforce in the year 2014

L G Close1, R H Miller

  • 1Department of Otolaryngology/Head and Neck Surgery, College of Physicians and Surgeons of Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.

The Laryngoscope
|October 1, 1995
PubMed
Summary

Projections indicate a slight decrease in the head and neck surgery workforce, with numbers falling from 1109 in 1994 to an estimated 1028 by 2014. A steady-state supply is predicted for this surgical specialty.

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Area of Science:

  • Medical Workforce Analysis
  • Surgical Specialty Projections
  • Public Health Planning

Background:

  • The head and neck surgery workforce is of significant interest to stakeholders.
  • Understanding future workforce trends is crucial for healthcare planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project the growth of the head and neck surgery workforce in the United States through 2014.
  • To analyze the impact of age distribution on workforce projections.

Main Methods:

  • A mathematical model was developed to forecast workforce numbers.
  • Criteria for designation included fellowship in the American Society for Head and Neck Surgery or the Society of Head and Neck Surgeons.
  • The model incorporated current active membership, age distribution, an annual intake of 30 new surgeons, and mortality rates.

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Main Results:

  • The total number of head and neck surgeons was projected to decrease from 1109 in 1994 to 1028 in 2014.
  • The analysis considered the age distribution within the active membership of professional societies.

Conclusions:

  • A slight decline in the head and neck surgery workforce is predicted by 2014.
  • The study suggests a steady-state supply of head and neck surgeons in the long term.