Development of structure-activity relationship rules for predicting carcinogenic potential of chemicals

Since the inception of Section 5 (Premanufacturing/Premarketing Notification, PMN) of the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), structure-activity relationship (SAR) analysis has been effectively used by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Structure Activity Team (SAT) in the assessment of potential carcinogenic hazard of new chemicals for which test data are not available. To capture, systematize and codify the Agency's predictive expertise in order to make it more widely available to assessors outside the TSCA program, a cooperative project was initiated to develop a knowledge rule-based expert system to mimic the thinking and reasoning of the SAT. In this communication, we describe the overall structure of this expert system, discuss the scientific bases and principles of SAR analysis of chemical carcinogens used in the development of SAR knowledge rules, and delineate the major factors/rules useful for assessing the carcinogenic potential of fibers, polymers, metals/metalloids and several major classes of organic chemicals. An integrative approach using available short-term predictive tests and non-cancer toxicological data to supplement SAR analysis has also been described.