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How many trainees are needed in general surgery? A computer model to facilitate planning
1Leicester Royal Infirmary.
Annals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England
|July 1, 1995
Summary
Urgent action is needed to increase the number of general surgery trainees. Shortening higher surgical training (HST) to five years or converting registrar posts can help meet consultant targets sooner.
Area of Science:
- Surgical Workforce Planning
- Medical Education Policy
Background:
- Reduced junior doctor hours and increased consultant appointments are driving demand for trained surgeons.
- Current projections indicate a shortfall in achieving the target of one general surgeon per 30,000 population.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a computer model for planning higher surgical trainee (HST) and consultant numbers.
- To evaluate scenarios for meeting the projected demand for general surgeons.
Main Methods:
- A computer simulation model was used to analyze trainee and consultant numbers under various scenarios.
- Scenarios included varying HST training duration and conversion of registrar posts.
Main Results:
- With a six-year HST program, the target of 1767 consultant posts will not be met until approximately 2016.
- Shortening HST to five years or converting visiting registrar posts to HST could achieve the target by 2009 or 2006, respectively.
Conclusions:
- Urgent increases in HST output for general surgery are necessary.
- Frequent monitoring and adjustment of HST entry numbers are recommended due to uncertain consultant demand.