The 90K tumor-associated antigen and clinical progression in human immunodeficiency virus infection

We investigated the possibility that a secreted glycoprotein of approximately 90,000 daltons, termed 90K and identified as a member of the protein superfamily characterized by the scavenger receptor cysteine-rich (SRCR) domain, might have value as a predictor of progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in subjects infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Among 488 HIV-seropositive intravenous drug users with a median follow-up of 32.5 months, high levels of serum 90K at baseline proved to be a significant predictor of faster progression to AIDS, either as a continuous variable (log 90K; p < 0.0001) or as a dichotomous variable with an optimized cutoff point of 30 U/ml (p < 0.00001). Analysis of 90K in relation to known prognostic factors found an association with CD4 count, beta 2-microglobulin, and p24 antigen but none with neopterin. In multivariate analysis, the baseline 90K level was an independent predictor of AIDS. As compared with subjects with low levels of 90K, the relative risk of developing AIDS was 3.5 (95% CI 1.9-6.5) among those with high levels of 90K. The predictive value of 90K was maintained after stratification by baseline CD4 count: among subjects with > or = 500 x 10(6)/L CD4 cells, the proportion in whom AIDS developed was 10.5% for those with 90K levels < or = 30 U/ml as compared with 20% for those with 90K above the cutoff point (p = 0.006). Serum 90K is an independent predictor of the risk for progression to AIDS in HIV-infected subjects, including those whose CD4 counts have not fallen.