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Related Experiment Videos

Violent recidivism: assessing predictive validity

M E Rice1, G T Harris

  • 1Mental Health Centre, Penetanguishene, Ontario, Canada.

Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology
|October 1, 1995
PubMed
Summary
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Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves offer a superior method for evaluating the accuracy of violence prediction. ROCs are independent of base rates and cutoff scores, aiding in clinical decision-making.

Area of Science:

  • Forensic Psychology
  • Clinical Criminology
  • Psychometrics

Background:

  • Limited evidence exists for accurate prediction of violent behavior by clinicians or actuarial instruments.
  • A variety of measures exist for evaluating prediction accuracy, causing confusion.
  • Previous methods for assessing prediction accuracy were often dependent on base rates and cutoff scores.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To demonstrate the advantages of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for evaluating violence prediction accuracy.
  • To illustrate how ROC methods can compare different violence prediction instruments.
  • To show how ROCs aid decisions regarding the use of prediction instruments at specific base rates.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from 799 previously violent men with 3.5-, 6-, and 10-year follow-ups.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Altered base rates by changing follow-up duration, the definition of violent recidivism, and examining a high-risk subgroup.
  • Applied receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to evaluate prediction accuracy.

    • Main Results:

    • Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are independent of base rates for violence and chosen cutoff scores.
    • ROC methods effectively compare the performance of different instruments for predicting violence.
    • ROC analysis facilitates decisions on the warranted use of prediction instruments based on base rates.

    Conclusions:

    • Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves provide a robust and versatile method for assessing violence prediction accuracy.
    • ROC analysis overcomes limitations of other measures by being independent of base rates and cutoff points.
    • ROC methods enhance the ability to compare prediction instruments and guide clinical decisions in forensic settings.