A structured epidemic model incorporating geographic mobility among regions

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Modeling
• Public Health

Background:

• Understanding infectious disease spread requires accounting for population movement.
• Existing models often simplify or omit complex mobility patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a flexible mathematical model for infectious disease transmission across discrete geographic regions.
• To integrate a detailed mobility process into an established epidemic framework.

Main Methods:

• A general formulation for a mobility process is described.
• This mobility process is incorporated into a compartmental SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) epidemic model.
• The model's application is demonstrated with two case studies.

Main Results:

• The mobility formulation accommodates a spectrum of behaviors, from isolation to permanent migration.
• The model successfully describes disease transmission with varied mobility patterns.
• A specific application modeled the 1984 measles epidemic in Dominica.

Conclusions:

• The developed model provides a robust framework for studying geographically structured epidemics.
• Incorporating realistic mobility is crucial for accurate disease spread prediction.
• The model is adaptable for diverse epidemiological scenarios and public health interventions.