A sensitivity study of the SCK.CEN BIOSPHERE model for performance assessment of near-surface repositories

At SCK.CEN a model has been developed on behalf of NIRAS/ONDRAF for the performance assessment of near-surface repositories, consisting of several submodels. This article deals with the submodels BIOSPHERE, describing the transfer and accumulation of the radionuclides in the biosphere and DOSE, calculating effective individual doses to the critical group. An extensive literature review was performed in order to determine best-estimate values and uncertainty ranges (probability density functions) of biosphere parameter values, specific to conditions that may prevail at potential disposal sites in Belgium. In this paper the BIOSPHERE and DOSE models are described and default and site-specific values (probability density functions where appropriate) of the parameters involved are indicated for the radionuclides 129I, 239Pu, and 94Nb. A combined uncertainty/sensitivity analysis based on the pdf of the site-specific parameter values has been carried out. Median values and 95% confidence intervals of the site-specific doses are indicated and most influential parameters to the uncertainty identified. Site-specific median dose values are also compared with generic doses.