Changes over time in survival of children after AIDS diagnosis in New York City

We determined whether survival of children following AIDS diagnosis is improving over time through 1991. AIDS surveillance data from New York City Department of Health on 914 pediatric AIDS patients, diagnosed between 1979 and 1991 and presumed due to maternal-infant HIV transmission, were analyzed. Survival following AIDS diagnosis, established from hospital records and death certificates, was compared by calendar year of initial diagnosis using Kaplan-Meier lifetable analysis. Cox Proportional Hazards regression models were used to compare survival for patients diagnosed earlier or later in the decade, controlling for age at diagnosis, presenting opportunistic illness, and gender of the child. Patients diagnosed with AIDS from October 1987 to September 1989 survived longer, median survival 17 months after diagnosis, than patients diagnosed before September 1987, median survival 10 months (relative risk [RR] = 0.76; 95% confidence intervals [CI] = 0.62, 0.93). Patients diagnosed from October 1989 to December 1991 also survived a median of 17 months. Secular improvements in survival after AIDS diagnosis remained after controlling for age at diagnosis, presenting diagnosis, and gender, even if deaths within three months of diagnosis were excluded. These data suggest that for recent years, survival following AIDS diagnosis in those contracting the infection through maternal-infant transmission has been prolonged. Possible explanations for these findings include both methodological issues (changes in diagnostic criteria, incomplete ascertainment of deaths) and substantive issues (developments in therapeutic interventions and management of pediatric AIDS).