[The construction of a model for predicting adolescent smoking behavior from a 7-year follow-up survey]

Predictive factors for adolescent smoking behavior were examined prospectively in a cohort of 199 adolescents who participated in a survey in March 1983 and were followed up about 7 years later. In 1983, as junior high school students (grades 1-3), subjects completed a questionnaire which consisted of variables on smoking behaviors of subjects' family and friends, attitudes toward smoking, knowledge about the effects of smoking on health, and self-prediction of future smoking behavior. In 1990, a similar survey including variables on subjects' smoking behavior was again carried out. At that time, all were 20 years or older. It was found that the number of friends in 1983 who smoke was strongly associated with smoking behavior in 1983, and for both sexes smoking behavior in 1983 and self-prediction of future smoking behavior in 1983 were the factors which were associated with smoking behavior in 1990. Furthermore, a model for predicting smoking behavior was deduced from the foregoing results and the findings of prior studies. The covariance structure analysis supported the validity of the model and revealed that smoking behavior in 1983, number of friends who smoke, and self-prediction of future smoking behavior were important in predicting smoking behavior 7 years later.