Formula expressing a relationship among lesion thickness and time after diagnosis and survival probability in...

A microcomputer program in BASIC for predicting the survival probability as a function of lesion thickness and time after diagnosis is designed. The New York University-Melanoma Cooperative Group (NYU-MCG) shows 10-year survival rates of patients with malignant melanoma broken into four lesion-thickness groups (Cancer Journal for Clinicians, 41 (1991) 201-226). The formula used in this program is derived from the survival data of NYU-MCG. A mathematical 'probacent'-probability model previously published by the author is employed in this study. Analysis of the computer-assisted predicted and the NYU-MCG reported survival probability data indicates that the program is accurate and reliable with a close agreement in expressing survival probability and that it may be of value for prognostic evaluation of patients.