[Analysis of factors related to the recent decline in birth rate in Japan]

This study was undertaken in an attempt to determine whether regional differences exist for those factors which have affected the decline in the total fertility rate in Japan between 1970 and 1990. Age Stratified analysis of vital statistics of the 20 to 39-year-old female population for the 46 prefectures was performed, and evaluated in relation to urbanization. The parameters examined were birth rate, percentage of married women, rates of birth by married women, and percentage of the work force in the service industry. The results were as follows. 1. Characteristic changes were noted in birth rates for females between 25 and 29 years of age. The reasons are that average marriage age for females shifted from 20-24 to 25-29, causing the birth rates for females between the ages of 25 to 29 years to decline, while not uniformly, but with some regional differences among the 46 prefectures. 2. Urbanization has had a significant effect on the declining birth rate for females grouped by age. The advance of the urbanization process in each prefecture is directly related to the decline in the birth rates for females between 20 to 24 years and 25 to 29 years. The extent of urbanization in each prefecture is inversely related to the rate of birth by married women and the percentage of married women between age 20 to 24 and 25 to 29 in that prefecture. The trend toward delaying marriage and childbirth in the urbanized prefectures appeared to be a major factor leading to the decline in the total fertility rate.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)