[Prognostic factors in severe acute pancreatitis. Univariate and multivariate study]

The aim of this study was to analyze the prediction of mortality in patients with severe acute pancreatitis.

In a retrospective study 43 patients with severe acute pancreatitis were included. All patients required ICU admittance and surgical treatment. We evaluated severity according to Ranson's criteria, APACHE II score, CT scan classification (Hill), intraoperative findings (Vankemmel's classification) and number of organs failure. We performed a univariant and multivariant statistic study with lineal discriminant analysis.

The overall mortality was 46.5%. Ranson's score and APACHE II did not correlate with mortality. Hill's classification did not reach significance either. However, only the Vankemmel's classification and the number of organs failure had statistic value (p < 0.01). After lineal discriminant analysis, the association of more than 4 Ranson's criteria, APACHE II up to 9 points, grades IV and V in Hill's classification and 4 organs failure had a predictive value for mortality.

In our limited experience the Vankemmel's classification and the number of organs failure had a predictive value for mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. The association of more than 4 Ranson's criteria. APACHE II up to 8 points, grades IV-V in Hill's classification and 4 organs failure disclosed poor prognosis.