An indicator model of drug use in Israel

A new methodology is proposed for measuring illicit drug activity. Factor analysis is used to estimate the factor score(s) that underlie the time series for a number of indicators that are hypothesized to be directly or indirectly related to drug activity. The factor score bears the interpretation of an index of drug activity. The methodology is implemented using data for Israel over the period 1950-1991. The methodology does not provide absolute measures of incidence or prevalence. It therefore complements rather than substitutes survey methods. On the other hand, it is cheap to apply, easy to update and most probably more objective in measurement.