An introduction to national futures studies for policymakers in the health sector

Health futures studies have been carried out in only a few countries, but as interest grows in both national long-term perspective studies and health futures, this pattern is likely to change. Policymakers who decide to launch a national study within the health sector should begin by learning about the alternative purposes for which such a study can be done, the different designs and methodologies it can employ, and the various funding and sponsorship arrangements under which it can be carried out. Newcomers to the futures field often make false assumptions about these four aspects and underestimate the range within each. If those responsible for a study become fully aware of the diverse approaches that are possible and make well-considered choices among them, they are more likely to produce a study that has a clearly defined purpose, combines appropriate components in a design which serves the purpose, employs methodologies suited to the components, and is funded and sponsored under an arrangement which supports the study's integrity and implementation.