Estimation and reliability of molecular sequence alignments

The problem of estimating the relatedness of a pair of biological sequences is addressed. A stochastic model of sequence evolution is described that allows insertion and deletion as well as replacement of amino acid residues (or substitution of nucleotides) over time. An expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm that obtains maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters is introduced. The method assumes that the sequences are related by descent from a common ancestor but the alignment (i.e., the precise evolutionary correspondence between residues in each sequence) is unknown. Results from the E-step of the EM algorithm are used to assess the likelihood that any two residues are related by direct descent from a common ancestor.