[The calculation of AIDS costs in Spain by simulation technics]

The aim of this study was to elaborate a quantitative model integrating the clinical, and epidemiologic characteristics of the economic costs of the treatment of HIV infected and AIDS patients in Spain to determine the future evolution of the treatment of HIV infected and AIDS patients in Spain to determine the future evolution of the disease and predict the costs of the treatments for the Spanish health care system in 1995.

A model based on the calculation of probabilities in which the classification of AIDS patients was designed in three phases: early, intermediate and AIDS and established the relations of changes among the phases and included the economic costs of each of the treatments. The model was programmed on a calculation sheet to allow possibilities of disease evolution to be configured in addition to the costs.

In 1995 the health care system will treat 22,000 AIDS patients together with those with HIV infection leading to three million hospital stays, equivalent to 8,000 hospital beds dedicated to each treatments with a budget repercussion of close to 90,000 million pesetas. The number of consultations to specialists will increase to up to 570,000 with the total cost of health care treatments being up to 113,000 million pesetas.

The results of this model indicate high health care costs derived from the treatment of AIDS and HIV infection. Given the fact that it is possible to perform simulations with the model under other hypothesis, basic clinical, epidemiologic and economic data are required to determine the most realistic possibilities to thereby orient global policies concerning this disease.