Community treatment of HIV-1: initial stage and asymptotic dynamics

Treatment with antiviral drugs (zidovudine and ddI) has been reported to delay progression to AIDS, and may even possibly lower the infectiousness of the infectives. However, its effect on the community level is still uncertain. The latter is important since a successful community treatment program must meet both public health and individual health goals. Our study will focus on the effect of a community-wide treatment program initiated at the early stages of the disease as well as the long-term effect of the program. Using a simple mathematical model, we demonstrate that a community-wide treatment program could be instrumental in decreasing HIV incidence rate and eradicating the disease in the future if certain conditions on the parameters are met. On the other hand, when the above mentioned conditions on the parameters are not satisfied, we show that even if the treatment does improve survival in AIDS patients and decrease the rate at which HIV infection spreads in the community, it is still possible for the treatment program to have an adverse effect on the spread of AIDS in the population in the long run. Hence, a public health policy maker must exercise caution in order to design an effective treatment program for HIV/AIDS.