HLA prediction model for extended family matches

This article derives a probabilistic model for predicting HLA matches from a population of extended family members. (Extended family members are defined as either first cousins or blood-related aunts or uncles). The model uses family pedigree information and haplotype frequency data to estimate the likelihood of a match. Results are given for many ethnic groupings. A case study is also described. This technique is most applicable when all family members are of the same ethnic origin, which increases the likelihood of a match among a small number of family members, and the patient possesses a haplotype having a frequency exceeding 10%, within the patient's ethnic population. Under such conditions, an extended family search can frequently approximate the success rate of a single sibling search.